Rainy next 3 days expected with total rainfall by Friday easily surpassing 3 inches, and probably as much as 4.5 inches
Rain starts late overnight according to models
The chance for thunder isn’t particularly great, although with high dew points around any lift (more likely east) could produce a storm or two especially east
Saturday may be dry before rain possibly on Sunday
A strong cold front expected Monday will send dew points into the 20s / 30s (as in bring in much drier air) with temps Tuesday possibly only in the 40
Marginal (1 out of 5 risk) severe risk for brief weak tornadoes today and gusty winds primarily due to the impacts of what’s left of hurricane Zeta
Strong south-southwesterly winds will pump copious amounts of moisture into our area, allowing for gusty winds and brief weak tornadoes typical to hurricanes (or their remnants) passing to our immediate (or somewhat close) west.
Dew points remain elevated till about midnight where drier air will begin moving in as the storm pulls northeast away from our area.
Strongest upper level winds start to pull east of Mebane after about 7-8 p.m. (reds & purples on screen capture), which more or less coincides with upper level energy, which should temper severe chances slightly after this …
Severe risk effectively ends at or about midnight as drier cooler air moves in, winds swivel to northwesterly overnight continuing to usher in drier air throughout the day Friday with dew points possibly in the 30s by early Saturday morning.
Another cold front is expected overnight Sunday but it’s affect will be mostly negligible other than to continue to dry & cool us down even further.
Dew points / moisture starts to recover slightly into the mid to upper 40s late next week as high temperatures rise to upper 60s / low 70s
Severe storm risk exists Thursday evening / night, as of now more so for areas south and east of Mebane - evolving situation
A large dew point drop of around 70F to the upper 50s coincides with strong upper level winds Thursday night, especially for areas south of highway 54, and east of Chapel Hill
A cold front / large dew point drop looks to hang at or about the Virginia / NC border to about 7 p.m; before that strong southerly winds associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone zeta and a low pressure in the vicinity of NW NC will pump up rich moist air from the southern Atlantic / gulf into our area
As the cold front / low / wind convergence zone drops south it’ll push the higher wind field south and east before dew points drop significantly just after midnight
Before the dew point drop, especially in the areas above mentioned a severe storm risk cannot be ruled out, including a risk for an isolated tornado
The dew point drop at or about midnight ends any severe threat (earlier north, later south-southeast)
Much more stable cooler conditions follow Friday into the weekend
Easy to see hurricane Delta in this infrared satellite image
What impacts this storm has for us is still not clear, although it is heading north so I suggest coming back here for updates
At the moment none of the models are expecting strong winds over us through the weekend.
Models for now suggest temperatures in the mid 60s Saturday to mid to upper 70s Sunday with some rain / storms around in the afternoon
Surface dew points in the low 60s over the weekend rise a bit by Monday under winds from the southeast bringing in moisture from the Atlantic
Spring like pattern Monday / Tuesday? Hard to tell, more on this later
All of this depends on Beta’strajectory, so stay tuned
Severe weather threat
The winds in and immediately around Mebane continue to suggest they’ll be from the north during Sally’s passage
This isn’t true for other parts of NC, including parts of the triangle
The picture is one model’s view of what the environment will be like very early Friday morning
The line I drew (in blue), separates a muggy tropical airmass (the “oranger” colors) with dew points in the mid-upper 70s with drier, less energetically dynamic mid 60s.
The blue line represents a convergence of wind & energy, where this line ends up will effect just what sort of conditions we will see, places along and to the east / southeast of this feature will have a slight to perhaps moderate risk of tornadoes
At the moment this line remains south then later, east, of Mebane
For those in the Triangle, stay weather aware, if a warning is issued protect yourself from the winds by going to an interior room on the lowest floor …
This system moves out late Friday for a glorious fall-like weekend!
What’s left of hurricane Sally will be around here Thursday / Friday
It’s exact placement will define just how
much rain Mebane receives
Lots of variation in models makes tomorrow’s & Friday’s forecast fairly uncertain
We will almost certainly be north of what’s left of Sally’s center eye, meaning north-northeasterly winds. making chances for strong to severe storms here pretty low
Updates as this storm approaches our area
This is an evolving event, so please keep weather aware this Thursday / Friday
Much nicer conditions arrive this weekend
Rainy thunderstorms possible today followed by a damp cooler weekend as fronts dip to near the South Carolina border
Best (but not great) chance for thunderstorms over the next 3 days is late today as first of 3 fronts takes advantage of day time heating.
Cooler, damp, likely cloudy (but not too wet) weekend lining up as Friday’s front lingers to our south Saturday.
This front re-pivots to our southeast Sunday, bringing maybe another low-end chance of thunder mainly southeast; before a front associated with the storm that brought early snow to the Rockies pushes through Monday during the day - drying us out and putting temperatures slightly below normal Tues-Thursday under mostly sunny skies
Picture show our dew point tomorrow afternoon…
One more hot day in the 90s (with feel-like temperatures approaching 100) before a significant dry cold front overnight drops dew points from the in the low to mid 70s of the past few days into the upper 50s - as in noticeably drier and less humid conditions forecasted for tomorrow
With the cold front comes cooler temperatures … highs top out in low to mid 80s over the weekend
By Tuesday we should be getting close to 90 before unsettled weather looks to drop us back to the low to mid 80s later in the week…
Bermuda high off the coast reasserts winds from the southeast (from the warm subtropical Atlantic) by Wednesday raising dew points back into the low-mid 70s, however temperatures won’t be as hot (upper 70s / low 80s)
Possibly another cold front late next week, if so drier cooler conditions will follow it