Marginal (1 out of 5 risk) severe risk for brief weak tornadoes today and gusty winds primarily due to the impacts of what’s left of hurricane Zeta

Strong south-southwesterly winds will pump copious amounts of moisture into our area, allowing for gusty winds and brief weak tornadoes typical to hurricanes (or their remnants) passing to our immediate (or somewhat close) west.

Dew points remain elevated till about midnight where drier air will begin moving in as the storm pulls northeast away from our area.

Strongest upper level winds start to pull east of Mebane after about 7-8 p.m. (reds & purples on screen capture), which more or less coincides with upper level energy, which should temper severe chances slightly after this …

Severe risk effectively ends at or about midnight as drier cooler air moves in, winds swivel to northwesterly overnight continuing to usher in drier air throughout the day Friday with dew points possibly in the 30s by early Saturday morning.

Another cold front is expected overnight Sunday but it’s affect will be mostly negligible other than to continue to dry & cool us down even further.

Dew points / moisture starts to recover slightly into the mid to upper 40s late next week as high temperatures rise to upper 60s / low 70s

Severe storm risk exists Thursday evening / night, as of now more so for areas south and east of Mebane - evolving situation

A large dew point drop of around 70F to the upper 50s coincides with strong upper level winds Thursday night, especially for areas south of highway 54, and east of Chapel Hill

A cold front / large dew point drop looks to hang at or about the Virginia / NC border to about 7 p.m; before that strong southerly winds associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone zeta and a low pressure in the vicinity of NW NC will pump up rich moist air from the southern Atlantic / gulf into our area

As the cold front / low / wind convergence zone drops south it’ll push the higher wind field south and east before dew points drop significantly just after midnight

Before the dew point drop, especially in the areas above mentioned a severe storm risk cannot be ruled out, including a risk for an isolated tornado

The dew point drop at or about midnight ends any severe threat (earlier north, later south-southeast)

Much more stable cooler conditions follow Friday into the weekend