Marginal (1 out of 5 risk) severe risk for brief weak tornadoes today and gusty winds primarily due to the impacts of what’s left of hurricane Zeta
Strong south-southwesterly winds will pump copious amounts of moisture into our area, allowing for gusty winds and brief weak tornadoes typical to hurricanes (or their remnants) passing to our immediate (or somewhat close) west.
Dew points remain elevated till about midnight where drier air will begin moving in as the storm pulls northeast away from our area.
Strongest upper level winds start to pull east of Mebane after about 7-8 p.m. (reds & purples on screen capture), which more or less coincides with upper level energy, which should temper severe chances slightly after this …
Severe risk effectively ends at or about midnight as drier cooler air moves in, winds swivel to northwesterly overnight continuing to usher in drier air throughout the day Friday with dew points possibly in the 30s by early Saturday morning.
Another cold front is expected overnight Sunday but it’s affect will be mostly negligible other than to continue to dry & cool us down even further.
Dew points / moisture starts to recover slightly into the mid to upper 40s late next week as high temperatures rise to upper 60s / low 70s
Severe storm risk exists Thursday evening / night, as of now more so for areas south and east of Mebane - evolving situation
A large dew point drop of around 70F to the upper 50s coincides with strong upper level winds Thursday night, especially for areas south of highway 54, and east of Chapel Hill
A cold front / large dew point drop looks to hang at or about the Virginia / NC border to about 7 p.m; before that strong southerly winds associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone zeta and a low pressure in the vicinity of NW NC will pump up rich moist air from the southern Atlantic / gulf into our area
As the cold front / low / wind convergence zone drops south it’ll push the higher wind field south and east before dew points drop significantly just after midnight
Before the dew point drop, especially in the areas above mentioned a severe storm risk cannot be ruled out, including a risk for an isolated tornado
The dew point drop at or about midnight ends any severe threat (earlier north, later south-southeast)
Much more stable cooler conditions follow Friday into the weekend
Easy to see hurricane Delta in this infrared satellite image
What impacts this storm has for us is still not clear, although it is heading north so I suggest coming back here for updates
At the moment none of the models are expecting strong winds over us through the weekend.
Models for now suggest temperatures in the mid 60s Saturday to mid to upper 70s Sunday with some rain / storms around in the afternoon
Surface dew points in the low 60s over the weekend rise a bit by Monday under winds from the southeast bringing in moisture from the Atlantic
Spring like pattern Monday / Tuesday? Hard to tell, more on this later
All of this depends on Beta’strajectory, so stay tuned